In 2011, there were 535,000 applications to ABA accredited law schools (mind: I refer to applications, not applicants). In 2014, there were 355,100 applications, a hefty decline of 33.6% from three years earlier. But, of course, this decline was not evenly distributed among the 200+ ABA-accredited law schools. 40 schools saw their application pool shrink by half or more, while a handful of outliers actually experienced an increase. What follows is a chart showing the number of law schools that experienced particular levels of change in applications, by percentage, between 2011 to 2014, followed by a list of the 65 law school that experienced a decline in applications of 45% or more. [1]
It may be that a particularly steep decline in applications provides a hint as to which law schools are sailing into trouble of an existence-threatening sort. I mean, these are the schools that have clearly lost their consumer appeal, even against the general backdrop of the fading law school mystique. Avowed lemmings no longer apply to these places even as their safeties.
Consider that Hamline experienced the 16th steepest drop in applications (56.8%) among the nation’s ABA accredited schools in the last three years, and soon that school may exist only as a phantom limb of William Mitchell. The finest law school in Grundy, VA experienced the 12th steepest drop (58.0%), and it is on the financial ropes, having shed half of its faculty. Cooley experienced the 4th biggest drop in applications (63.2%), and it closed down one of its four campuses. Here is hoping that the crash in consumer demand foreshadows a wave of faculty downsizing and law school closures.
Long-time posters and lurkers at JD Underground will surely appreciate which school experienced the biggest decline in applications from 2011 to 2014, a staggering 69.2% drop. MCGEORGE DOMINATES! (and you, Scamming Illini, quite definitely dominate the first tier).
% Change in Applications Received, 2011-2014
|
No. of law schools
|
Applications up by over 10%
|
6
|
Applications up by 5.01-10%
|
2
|
Applications up by 0.01-5%
|
2
|
Applications down by 0.01-5%
|
3
|
Applications down by 5.01-10%
|
7
|
Applications down by 10.01-15%
|
7
|
Applications down by 15.01-20%
|
6
|
Applications down by 20.01-25%
|
10
|
Applications down by 25.01-30%
|
18
|
Applications down by 30.01-35%
|
19
|
Applications down by 35.01-40%
|
35
|
Applications down by 40.01-45%
|
23
|
Applications down by 45.01-50%
|
25
|
Applications down by 50.01-55%
|
17
|
Applications down by 55.01-60%
|
15
|
Applications down by 60.01-65%
|
5
|
Applications down by 65.01-69.2%
|
3
|
School
|
Apps, 2011
|
Apps, 2014
|
Decline
|
| McGeorge |
3555
|
1094
|
69.2% |
Univ. of Toledo
|
1440
|
472
|
67.2%
|
Univ. of Illinois
|
4219
|
1462
|
65.3%
|
Thomas Cooley
|
4032
|
1481
|
63.2%
|
Ave Maria
|
1633
|
603
|
63.0%
|
Ohio Northern
|
1228
|
466
|
62.0%
|
Cleveland State
|
1157
|
601
|
61.4%
|
Univ. of Connecticut
|
2751
|
1088
|
60.4%
|
Quinnipiac
|
2035
|
817
|
59.8%
|
St. Thomas (Minn.)
|
1283
|
516
|
59.7%
|
Univ. of Louisville
|
1495
|
608
|
59.3%
|
Appalachian
|
1177
|
494
|
58.0%
|
Widener-Harrisburg
|
1186
|
582
|
58.0%
|
Univ. of D.C.
|
1643
|
696
|
57.6%
|
Mississippi College
|
1717
|
730
|
57.4%
|
Hamline
|
1232
|
530
|
56.8%
|
Univ. of Dayton
|
1751
|
762
|
56.4%
|
Arkansas-Little Rock
|
1529
|
669
|
56.2%
|
Villanova
|
3014
|
1321
|
56.1%
|
Western State
|
1882
|
835
|
56.1%
|
Penn State
|
4820
|
2121
|
55.9%
|
DePaul
|
4743
|
2087
|
55.9%
|
Albany
|
2153
|
959
|
55.4%
|
Oklahoma City
|
1204
|
544
|
54.8%
|
Univ. of Florida
|
3024
|
1369
|
54.7%
|
Univ. of Akron
|
1647
|
751
|
54.4%
|
George Mason
|
5354
|
2443
|
54.3%
|
New York Law Sch.
|
5997
|
2747
|
54.1%
|
Indiana-Indianapolis
|
1640
|
756
|
53.9%
|
St. Louis U.
|
2040
|
941
|
53.8%
|
Univ. of New Hampshire
|
1247
|
576
|
53.8%
|
Williamette
|
1092
|
508
|
53.4%
|
Widener-Delaware
|
2193
|
1021
|
53.4%
|
Seton Hall
|
3439
|
1625
|
52.7%
|
Arkansas-Fayetteville
|
1309
|
624
|
52.3%
|
Univ. of Wisconsin
|
2864
|
1371
|
52.1%
|
Regent
|
1180
|
570
|
51.6%
|
Drake
|
1026
|
496
|
51.6%
|
Sanford
|
1405
|
688
|
51.0%
|
Univ. of Pittsburgh
|
2379
|
1172
|
50.7%
|
LaVerne
|
1182
|
595
|
49.6%
|
Univ. of Tulsa
|
1466
|
741
|
49.4%
|
Florida Coastal
|
5277
|
2666
|
49.4%
|
Univ. of Hawaii
|
1229
|
621
|
49.4%
|
Univ. of Mississippi
|
1656
|
846
|
48.9%
|
Loyola (Chicago)
|
5040
|
2575
|
48.9%
|
Thomas Jefferson
|
2697
|
1381
|
48.7%
|
Lewis & Clark
|
2907
|
1491
|
48.7%
|
Hofstra
|
4566
|
2343
|
48.6%
|
Temple
|
4144
|
2127
|
48.6%
|
Univ. of Cincinnati
|
1572
|
811
|
48.4%
|
Chicago-Kent
|
3719
|
1937
|
47.9%
|
Univ. of Oregon
|
2178
|
1140
|
47.6%
|
Univ. of Tennessee
|
1277
|
669
|
47.6%
|
Pace
|
2735
|
1436
|
47.4%
|
William Mitchell
|
1536
|
807
|
47.4%
|
Catholic
|
3002
|
1583
|
47.2%
|
Northern Illinois
|
1058
|
560
|
47.0%
|
Drexel
|
2464
|
1307
|
46.9%
|
John Marshall (Chi)
|
3783
|
2007
|
46.9%
|
| Western New Engl. |
1170
|
621
|
46.9%
|
Chapman
|
2822
|
1505
|
46.6%
|
UNLV
|
1381
|
754
|
45.4%
|
Loyola Marymount
|
6781
|
3712
|
45.2%
|
West Virginia U.
|
1107
|
451
|
45.1%
|
---------------------------------
[1] Source: The spreadsheets located here:
http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org
The most amazing thing is that more schools haven't closed or been merged away already. How long can they keep it up?
ReplyDeleteMost toilets are simply accepting students that will never pass the bar. This scam is going to collapse slowly and eventually the federal government will get involved. I predict July 2018 bar passage will be the worst ever by far and many lawsuits accusing law schools of fraud will be filed. My toilet, WNE, accepted 82% of applicants and the law market here in CT is beyond awful. At least fifty law schools need to be shut down by executive order or by Congress immediately. You could probably shut down all law schools for ten years and still have a massive surplus of attorneys in this country. It's a mess and not stopping anytime soon. Student loan debt is now $1.3 trillion and growing like a tumor out of control. I have $120k in debt deferred with no way of paying any of it back. My life is destroyed unless I get a job qualifying me for PSLF.
DeleteYes, a number of skules now admit 80% or more of their applicants. But they're approaching the limit. They cannot raise admission beyond 100%. And many people who are admitted will not enroll.
DeleteAdmissions are near their theoretical maximum, yet applications and enrollment are both plummeting, and seats are already going unfilled. That spells bad news for many a law skule.
Old Guy
Excerpt from Stanley Kubrick's "The Shining"
ReplyDeleteHALLORAN
Well, you know Doc, when something
happens it can leave a trace of
itself behind... say like is
someone burns toast.
Well, maybe things that happened...
leave other kinds of traces behind.
Not things that anyone can notice,
but things that people who shine
can see. Just like they can see
things that haven't happened yet.
Well, sometimes they can see things
that happened a long time ago... I
think a lot of things happened
right here in this particular
hotel - over the years, and not all
of them was good.
DANNY
What about Room 237?
HALLORAN
Room 237?
DANNY
You're scared of Room 237, ain'tcha?
HALLORAN
No I ain't.
DANNY
Mr. Halloran, what is in Room 237?
HALLORAN
Nothing. There ain't nothing in
Room 237, but you ain't got no
business going in there anyway, so
stay out! You understand, stay out!
I am delighted to see that my Toilet has declined about 48% in the last three years.
ReplyDeleteMazeltov!
Some poor deluded Lemming who graduated in 2014 recently contacted me. He bleated desperately for help. He wanted me to help him find a job. Hell, there's nothing I can do. There are hundreds of better qualified people and better connected people waiting for the jobs he wants.
It felt a bit like watching a sheep belatedly realize (as the man with the captive bolt gun approaches) that this is the end. There's no way out of the holding pen.
By now his law school girlfriend has probably broken up with him and the money is starting to run out. After his halycon days of living in the Big City (debt-funded) he has probably had to move back in with his parents. He is from the area, so he's also in contact with his college buddies. He's probably also getting to the stage where it becomes uncomfortable to discuss his job situation, and he's having to carefully monitor the money he spends. So his social life is getting cramped too. He sees his friends getting on with their lives and is starting to wonder if he made a mistake....
His parents, even if they remotely understand the situation, are probably trying to be helpful by putting him in contact with acquaintances from 25 to 30 years ago who are getting ready to retire and have no hope of helping him. He has probably sunk several hundred dollars into local bar and organization memberships and desperately attends every networking function he can.
The interest on his debt is piling up. He is also probably aware that employers discriminate against those out of work for more than 6 months,to the point that they won't even look at his resume. And to cap it off, the class of 2015 is getting ready to graduate and compete with him!
If I had any advice to give him, it would be to start seeing a therapist and to get on some antidepressants. But he's probably not ready for that yet.
Also, Fellow Toileteers, please note that esteemed Profe$$or Don LeDuc of Cooley has just penned an especially oily post about the state of the legal market. It might be worthy of a Dybbuk takedown!
The above comment should be used as a guest post on this site. Sums up the experience of recent grads perfectly.
DeleteThis is a sad post. But one that speaks truth, no only for law graduates but many diverse-filed graduates...
DeleteThanks Anon @3:04!
DeleteI know what it's like because I lived through it myself. At least the poor deluded lemming who asked me for help did not have to support a family, like I had to.
As I realized during 3L that I had no job prospects, my drinking increased. As I sunk into depression, I went to the law school counselor, who blithely told me that my feelings were normal and to read a book about cognitive behavioral therapy. Little did he know that all I needed was a job.
I am only now starting to climb out of the hole that was the last 8 years.
This is why I am compelled to post on this site - in the hope that a few people will read my story and maybe rethink going to law school.
If you're going to bust out as pretentious a word as "halcyon", you should bother to spell it right.
DeleteNot saying the law schools are blameless by any stretch of the imagination, but all of this whining on "scam" blogs just confirms my suspicion that my generation has a massive entitlement problem.
I paid the tuition. I graduated. I (maybe) passed the bar. I deserve a job. Gimme.
Get over it and go find a way to market yourself. You have valuable skills. Figure out how to turn them into a living.
@8:51:
DeleteFive years ago called, and it wants its fashionable debunked refutation of "scamblogs" back.
Among other problems with your post is the idea that a typical law graduate has "valuable skills." Almost none of the actually have that.
I'd like to hear Jeffery Harrison's take on Florida.
ReplyDeleteWarning to lemmings who want to practice in PA. Note that 5 PA law schools (Widener is really a hybrid that sends the majority of students to PA) are on the list including the three public law schools (with better tuition rates). The market is telling you that practice is PA is still in free fall. Only a .1%er (not a 1%er) should even consider practicing in PA. PI oriented people need to realize that only T14 students are landing in most PI/gov't positions. This is advice from someone approaching 25 years in practice and who is viewed as more successful than most other members of the local bar.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Philadelphia or Pittsburgh you'll need top credentials but the rest of the state is a corrupt shithole notorious for nepotism. Government positions are all about who you know and PI firms are usually small boutiques known for hiring family or anyone who has the ability to bring in business.
DeleteRegarding PA schools in general, Villanova, Drexel, Duquesne and Widener (not technically in PA) should all just close down, and the two Penn State law schools should merge.
DeleteI hear Penn State actually DOES want to merge its two law schools, but there is opposition from the town where one of them is located. Evidently, the locals profit from a law school being there too.
The other big law school in the Philly area is Rutgers Camden, which like Widener is not technically in PA but might as well be. I hear there is talk of Rutgers merging its two law schools. Anyone know about this?
@U of I: Pless'd be thy name.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the Chicagoan in me can't help but LOL at the Illinois state-wide carnage on this list. Don't go to law school, you dorks. But if you do go, don't be like idiot me and go to one of the *six* toilets on this list that feed directly into the dumpster fire of Chicago's legal marketplace.
^^^^^
DeleteThis.
Chicago is insanely saturated with desperate Toileteers looking for jobs. Lemmings at the higher ranked Toilets actively look down on the mouth-breathers at JMLS. They are unaware that EVERYTHING outside the top 10-15 is a Toilet.
Still, I suspect that parts of California and the northeast are worse, partly because of high COL.
9:45 here, and there's a lot of truth to that. Loyola/Kent/Depaul students sneer at JMLS...only to find they're all in the same bucket at graduation. I imagine U of I students sneer at all of them...only to find they're not any better off, plus Champaign is a 'hole.
DeleteNYC and Boston are likely worse, but Chicago has a high enough COL to make life suck unless you yuppie up with roommates on the north side who likely have far better employment prospects in other fields. Welcome to Chicago, where an Ohio State undergrad degree will open more doors than than that fancy law degree from the U of I.
I agree with 10:28. About three months ago, I opined in an article here that only 13 law schools are worth considering (and even that is an exaggeration). All other law schools are toilets. Thus even most of the so-called "first tier" is really in the fourth tier.
DeleteOld Guy
The strange thing about Illinois is that, while applications have cratered, the falls in class size, GPA and LSAT are not that bad. Still, going to IL Law is a game of roulette - and if you want to gamble in Illinois, go to Rivers in Des Plaines. You lose a few hundred bucks before you realize your folly and go home.
DeleteApplication numbers are interesting, but I don't think they matters so much. At best, they're a proxy measure.
ReplyDeleteThe important statistic is matriculation rate.
But the interesting statistic is that the number of applications has fallen greater than the number of applicants. I would interpret this to indicate that applicants are getting more savvy and won't waste their time applying to many of the schools on the above list.
DeleteYes: people are applying to fewer schools, even though for this cycle no fewer than 74 law schools have dropped their application fees. Just a few years ago, only a handful of schools—mostly Cooleyesque toilets—didn't charge an application fee.
DeleteOld Guy
Oh Hofstra, I looked for you on this list, and found you I did.
ReplyDeleteYou tried so hard to be St. John's/Cardozo, but in the end, you were merely Touro.
Actually, according to their employment outcomes, significantly worse than Touro.
DeleteThe reason for this is obvious. Especially under former dean Nora Demleitner, Hofstra was successful in attracting deluded students who thought they were destined for Biglaw or federal clerkships. Touro has always attracted bottom-of-the-barrel applicants with no illusions about their own prospects. Ironically, in today's admissions market, even the bottom-tier applicants won't touch Hofstra. A closure appears inevitable at this point, or at best a face-saving merger with Touro, Pace, or NYLS.
DeleteThird Tier Drake is treading some brown toilet water.
ReplyDeleteMCGEORGE DOMINATES!!!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like apps at the U of Denver have held up very well. They're down by less than 45%, which is truly remarkable. That's because Denver is a hotbed of intellectual excitement these days. They even had a student who published an article and got hired at a law firm!
ReplyDeleteIn a futile effort to halt its 52.7% decline in applications, Seton Hall allowed one of its professors to publish a fatally flawed, poorly conceived, and highly illogical piece of "economic research." Subsequently, in a desperate struggle to defend its highly controversial conclusions, Brian Leiter has been forced to concede that much of the online criticism of his own vile and predatory activities is actually not defamatory! I think this illustrates the general principle that when dealing with morally depraved individuals such as Leiter or the scamdeans, a focus on facts and logic can often neutralize even their most histrionic tactics.
ReplyDeleteTo those like Dybbuk who have provided accurate evidence, careful reasoning, and top-tier scholarship in refutation of the law school scam, I offer my profound thanks.
I just received a resume from a non-trad law grad who graduated as the no. 5 ranked student at Pace Law. Not top 5% but actually the top 5 students in his class. The position he applied for: paralegal. I was fascinated by his background. Ivy league undergrad and worked in the tech field. I wonder what went wrong with him. I know people in the tech field who earn six figures and have flexible schedules. What would possess someone to leave a lucrative field to chase a dream full of misery and iron pyrite? I felt like calling the guy in for an interview just to gauge his character but I will spare him the waste of time. I wonder if there was ever a time when a top 5 student from Pace would succeed in the law.
ReplyDeleteHow the hell did that guy even end up in Pace in the first place?
DeleteEither an LSAT in the 150s or a massive scholarship at a time when higher schools weren't giving them.
DeleteOr perhaps he lived near that toilet and for some personal reason couldn't easily go elsewhere. Unlikely though that may seem in the suburbs of New York City, it's not unusual for older people who have jobs or families or other commitments.
DeleteOld Guy
Assuming his resume is that good, he must have gotten much worse than a 150. More like something in the 140s. I got a 151 on the LSAT, and I got into American, Temple, Case Western, Cardozo and Fordham.
DeleteAlso, regarding the tech field being lucrative, you sure it's lucrative for everyone? LAW can be quite lucrative for some too, and many people have the illusion we lawyers are all gainfully employed somewhere.
This guy may have personality issues. Be careful.
People are finally fucking getting it.
ReplyDelete@10:00
ReplyDeleteI graduated top 5 percent from a school ranked higher than pace, 75 percent scholarship, and a CS background. I barely got a job as a patent lawyer in a small boutique where my job is far from certain and lateraling is close to impossible.
The over saturation in the profession is staggering. Also, the tech field, although better than law, is not the paradise it is made out to be. Outsourcing and globalization produce short careers...
People have to understand that higher education is not the ticket it used to be. This is particularly true for law school.