Why do the scamblogs, who are already past their expiration date according to some critics, keep whining about job prospects for graduates and for the legal profession as a whole? Why not just shut up, or something, already.
Well, thanks to an upcoming article, we have yet further information to explain why the scamblogs maintain their dogged insistance on the matter:
Why, then, you may well ask, is there persistent talk of the entry-level job market’s purported improvement, and even suggestions that it is “hot”?...Well, the percentage of new graduates obtaining a Law Job has risen steadily since 2011. And how can the portion of the graduating class getting a Law Job increase while the number of Law Jobs falls? Easy: The number of students graduating law school has been falling faster than the number of Law Jobs. Here’s a picture:
Look at the above chart. When the scamblogs say that "JD graduates have been overproduced 2-to-1 compared to available jobs for decades," it is data such as this, hot off the presses, that we are referring to. Granted, given this recent summary, perhaps we should amend our statement to say "Ok, overproduced anywhere from 1.4 to 1.8, given the year," but the thesis still holds. When we speak of the "lawyer glut," this is it. And when those who cherry-pick the data say "this is the best time to go!", the reality is exactly what the quote above describes - there are relative percentages, and then there are absolute numbers. Not the same thing.
No employer sector offers more Law Jobs today than it did ten years ago. Non-law-firm entry-level Law-Job hiring has remained relatively flat in all sectors (other than the sudden dip experienced by nearly every sector of the hiring market when the economy crashed in 2008-2009):
Again, look at the above chart. The fact that non-law-firm hiring has been flat does not bode well for the JD-Advantage crowd, either. Many, many times has the Cartel lauded and praised the opportunities for JD-Advantage jobs, and many, many times have we taken those claims down. Into this flat market have excess JD graduates been pumped, year after year. The market is clearly not crying out for JD-trained individuals.
A final chart shows lawfirm-specific hiring:
Again, this looks very similar to the prior chart. While some might say "oh, look, firms of 501 or more lawyers are on the upswing," but by what percentage? Take a more critical look at the broad expanse as a whole. These lines are not flying off the charts, are they? They look rather flat in actuality. The total job line, at the top, has the profile of a road with several potholes, not the long graceful upwards-curve of a suspension bridge to new heights.
Friends, this is why we say what we say. I, for one, am greatful the Academy is publishing this information, as it needs to be made known, even though the implications are not good for the Cartel. Many of us would like nothing better than for the excesses of the past to be wiped away, and there to be Elysian Fields ahead. But the reality is that the market does not need new JDs at the rate they have been produced. Don't go to law school because it sounds good, only go if you have the backing and the credentials to get you there. It's nothing personal, it is just the reality on the ground. Too, too many have been sold a bill of goods to only learn the truth later, and we would all like to see that scenario go away in favor of gainfully employed JDs doing real work for real people.
In fact, just don't go. The market still has yet to right-size, given prior comments from the Cartel itself. Now is not the time.