Well, what began as a strong start for the Cartel, near 2012 levels of applicants, quickly morphed back to near-repeat of 2018. While it is good news that we are still nowhere near 2012 levels of applicants, there has been a slow, steady march upwards from 2015 ever since. For the friends of the scamblogs, this is a disturbing trend.
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| 2019 Projected, with Past Data |
It appears that we will be clocking in around 62,000 applicants for the 2019 cycle given current projections. Hopefully a significant number of these will be encouraged to move on to something else, as sometimes rejection only looks good in hindsight - ask some of the commentators here who realized after the fact they dodged a bullet. Here's hoping that those who do remain have good prospects on the other side, though we here at OTLSS won't be holding our collective breath for that - with the Cartel stroking egos and selling snowflake-dreams, it is a siren-call difficult to dismiss.
Instead of blogs, I suspect most younger people get their news from social media, which includes something like reddit. All I ever see on reddit when related to law is good outcomes. Of course there are a lot of lies on reddit, not just for law but for everything else, but it's hard to know that until you become more experienced and are actually out in the real world and have been for some time. But by that point it's going to be much too late.
ReplyDeleteIt's also possible the scam blogs, or what's left of them, are inapplicable to the vocal areas/outcomes. Maybe 40% of law school graduates have great outcomes. Even if the majority have bad outcomes, that 40% is still going to be a strong outcome, and difficult to argue against. Nobody plans to be in the bottom 60%, and certainly those with bad outcomes tend to not want to dwell in them and expose themselves, even if there is anonymity, human nature being what it is.
The solution won't be for young people to figure out how rigged the system is and avoid it. It's going to have to come from those within power or those that are older and experienced fighting for that. The same way child labor wasn't ended by children refusing, but by a group in power insisting on ending it and then changing attitudes after. However where it comes to banking and educational corruption, I am not seeing that, certainly not in one coming generation or two.
Very apt analogy with child labor. Higher Ed will basically have to crash and burn spectacularly before anyone does anything about it.
DeleteThe Higher Education Act had a pretty good run, but now it has clearly outlived its usefulness and needs to be overhauled.
No, 40% of law-school graduates do not have great outcomes. Five years ago, I determined that only 16 law schools—out of more than 200—saw 40% or more of their graduates get jobs in Big Law or federal clerkships:
Deletehttps://outsidethelawschoolscam.blogspot.com/2014/12/guest-post-by-old-guy-which-law-schools.html
Even those are not "great outcomes", for they typically don't lead to enduring careers.
Well, as cumbersome as it is to get data from the LSAC these days, after about ten clicks, I found the stats-to-date that state that compared with last year, 64 law schools had an application increase while 128 law schools had an application decrease with ten schools staying even (at this time last year 90% of applications were in). I think the large number of law schools with a decrease in applications is a firm positive as these schools probably include the TTTs which anyone with a sheep's brain now knows is a bad investment. I would also note that while the number of applicants is slightly up, the number of applicants taking the LSAT is down about 2% from last year so perhaps the schools which don't require the LSAT may be the ones which are experiencing the application increase. Also of note, there are fewer white applicants and fewer male applicants this year compared with last year so there may be a correlation between these stats and the potential applicants who are most likely to have access to social capital including sound advice about law schools.
ReplyDeleteI agree that that 128 law schools having an application drop is a good trend. The fact that the overall total increased indicates that more students are only applying for the upper tier schools, perhaps with apps to multiple upper tier schools. Presumably, if not accepted, they just move on to something else rather than settling for a toilet, which might have been more common in the past.
DeleteIt is hard to say if the 2% drop in LSAT takers is even statistically significant although any drop is welcome. But it could be a leading indicator that the real number of applicants is declining. At least it is better than an increase.
Unfortunately, are these declines really enough to close the lower tier toilets? It looks like there will be always a new crop to chase the pipe dream.
Applicants are up, but the employment data is not looking any better. Law schools have released the class of 2018 employment data. Here is a small sample of the data:
ReplyDeleteThe University of Alabama school of law, the #25 ranked law school per the U.S. News, managed to place 78% of grads in FT, LT, BP required jobs. 5% of grads were unemployed 10 months after graduation and 5% of grads were only employed in part time/short term jobs. 3 grads, representing 2% of the class, were employed in non-professional jobs. Yet this is supposedly the 25th “best” law school.
Pepperdine, the #51 ranked law school per the U.S. News, only placed 67% of grads in FT, LT, BP required jobs. 10% of grads were unemployed 10 months after graduation and 8% of grads were only employed in part time/short term jobs.
Loyola University Chicago, tied for the #77 “best” law school, only placed 62% of grads in FT, LT, BP required jobs. 7% of grads were unemployed 10 months after graduation (this includes 3 grads with a deferred start date and 1 grad categorized as unknown status). At a price tag of nearly $50k a year, who wouldn’t want to go into massive debt for about a 2/3 chance of practicing law.
Hofstra, tied for the #100 “best” school, placed 78% of grads in FT, LT, BP required jobs. However, 13% of the class was unemployed 10 months after graduation (including 2 grads with deferred start dates and 2 grads classified as unknown status). Hoftra’s unemployment rate is over three times the national unemployment rate.
Cooley posted absolutely abysmal statistics. Only 30% of the class managed to land a FT, LT, BP required job. 19% of the class was unemployed 10 months after graduation (including 5 grads with deferred start dates and not including the 22 grads classified as unknown status). Cooley did not know the employment status of 6% of the class. 13% of the class only found part-time or short-term jobs. 5% of the class were employed in non-professional positions.
Please, please, please block Harper's blog. Giving him an audience only encourages him.
ReplyDeleteHis latest ends with:
"Meanwhile, ignore claims that Mueller exonerated Trump. He didn’t. Not by a lot."
I.e. "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"
That movie had as much to do with reality as what Harper is peddling, but at least it was entertaining, not depressing.
How long until someone says to become a teacher, nurse, cop or firefighter?
ReplyDeleteMy pretty old student debt will reach 500 thousand in a few months. I make monthly payments based on my income and the payments don't even cover the interest charges. I will pay for the rest of my life. If such an amount were to be forgiven I shudder to think of the tax bill I will get for this, an already quintupled principal balance. I don't even work in law. But I'm wasting my time here. No one cares anyway. Give us this day our daily bread.
ReplyDeleteWhere did you go to law school, and why did you go to law school? Am curious, did you pass the bar, were you unable to find employment? What field do you work in now? Did you rack up a bunch of debt for undergrad and then double down on debt for law school that never paid off?
DeleteIt's unfortunate that applications are increasing in a strong economy. Imagine that going to law school without existing connections is your best option.
ReplyDeleteMight almost be a good time to buy a law school. When the job market sours in a few years you'll be up to your eyeballs in ignorant and greedy students.
Yes unfortunate, but to reiterate 2:34 AM noted that the total applications were only up due to a surge with the elites and upper tiers. The number for the toilets were down.
DeleteNot down enough, but still better than an increase.