Paul Campos, whose long-defunct blog Inside the Law School Scam inspired our name, has just published "Is Your Law School Going Broke? A field guide for interested parties". Conclusion: all but a dozen or so of the ABA-accredited law schools face substantial peril, in most cases grave. Presenting data and estimates derived from 184 of the 195 ABA-accredited law schools open today, Campos finds that 14 are at low risk, 29 at moderate risk, 66 at high risk, and 75 at severe risk of financial difficulties that could lead to drastic restructuring or outright closure.
Operationally, Campos takes $700k of effective tuition per faculty member (meaning actual tuition received, so excluding discounts passed off as "scholarships") as the approximate amount needed to pay for a law school's operations. He admits that some law schools do function on considerably less but also points out that many spend a great deal more: toilet Brooklyn, for instance, spent twice as much ($1.34M) in 2024–25. He also considers such factors as the size of the law school's endowment, to the extent that this information can be found or estimated, and the change in effective tuition per faculty member between 2010–11 and 2024–25. That change, incidentally, is slightly positive at 23 law schools and strongly negative at the great majority: the average change for all schools was –33%, a decline of one-third.
Of the 14 that appear safe for the near future, the most surprising is Montana. How did this über-toilet-tier establishment secure its financial position? By hiking tuition greatly, increasing enrollment slightly, and slashing faculty by more than a quarter. Perhaps its location in a large, relatively empty state enabled it to jack tuition higher than could the typical miscellaneous mediocrity or toilet school in a state or region abounding in comparably bad law schools.
At the other extreme, those at severe risk include several sub-élite poseurs that pretend to be in a league with Duke and Cornell even though everyone knows that they're not. UCLA in particular, by his estimate, spends about three-quarters more than it generates; no doubt it survives at the expense of the rest of the university and therefore represents a large drain on the university's budget. Twelve state flagship schools—Alabama, Colorado (where Campos works), Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio State, Utah, Wisconsin—congratulate themselves on being in the "first tier" by bullshit US News nomenclature (they are in the fourth tier or lower by Old Guy's ranking); all have long posted large annual deficits that, again, must be made good from the parent university's budget, to the detriment of other programs that are arguably much more deserving. (Campos points out that law professors are frequently paid a great deal more than their counterparts in arts and sciences, for no clearly justifiable reason.) Although these are hardly likely to dry up and blow away in the manner of the InfiLaw scam-schools and thirteen others in the past decade, their days of lavish allowances from the administrative sugar daddy are rapidly ending.
Some severely endangered law schools don't generate enough revenue to cover payroll, never mind their other expenses. Campos convincingly estimates that more than 90% of the budget for Michigan State's toilet law school comes from the central administration. No doubt the university can find better uses for its money than the maintenance of a discredited law school in a region housing two dozen other law schools within a four-hour drive.
The new cap on federally guaranteed student loans for professional programs will bring additional pressure to bear on law schools ranging from the near-élite to the über-toilety. A few law schools have offered to make the difference up with discounts, but only a handful can afford to.
Campos points to one potential source of savings: abandonment of the ill-fated campaign to secure a higher ranking from bullshit rag US News. It is well known in and around legal hackademia that elevation outside the top 14 or so doesn't matter and that entry into the top 14 is practically out of the question. As Campos shows, those absurd "rankings" brought about the wave of discounts grandiloquently styled "scholarships", which were only ever bribes for applicants with high LSAT scores (and, secondarily, high undergraduate GPAs) that could help to push an inferior law school up a position or two. By giving up the bribery and charging full fare, law schools could generate more revenue, at least in principle. Increasingly schools have been refusing to take part in the US News circus; perhaps they will also stop cutting deals for high scorers.
Several law schools now fill their classes primarily with people not pursuing a JD, be they foreign students seeking an LLM, administrative workers foolishly seeking advancement by means of another Mickey Mouse master's degree, or undergraduates majoring in law. No such school existed a decade ago, yet now several are trying to sustain themselves with this transition away from professional qualification. Whether they will succeed remains to be seen.
Campos's analysis suggests that the law-school scam merely caught its second wind a few years ago but remains financially precarious—and, Old Guy would add, ethically and academically bankrupt.
Notwithstanding the numbers crunching done by Campos, the scam exists in a world well outside fiscal responsibility.
ReplyDeleteSpecifically:
It his highly unlikely that any state-supported law school(eg Michigan State) will be allowed to fail. The alumni network for all these schools would be too strong, and it would be a major embarrassment to the state government(in other words, the politicians). So while adjustments will be made(eg jacking up tuition), the schools won't be closed even if they are huge financial black holes(eg UMinnesota).
And regarding the private trash schools? Well, as OTLSS has recently pointed out, Appalachian received a grant of $3.4 million...all taxpayer money. So while many of the smaller private law schools are under financial pressure, once again it's the politicians who will come to the rescue.
Yes, some schools will fail, but it will be few and far between. There's just too much ready access to taxpayer funds to bail out these schools. Unless and until elected officials say "enough!" the scam will survive, using government grants to keep the scam going.
And yes, it's a lot of politics; it's worth highlighting that politicians are adding to the scam(egU of North Texas, a publicly funded law school).
I'm not so sure that schools like Michigan State won't close. Sixteen law schools have closed in the past ten years. Admittedly "closed" isn't quite accurate: three of those were campuses of Cooley, two were schools that survived with state accreditation in California after forfeiting ABA accreditation, and one merged with another law school. Still, that's a lot of outright closures, when during the previous 60+ years only one ABA-accredited law school had closed down.
DeleteMichigan State, by Campos's calculation, is in grave peril, with only some $30k in annual tuition per faculty member. That doesn't come close to covering payroll, never mind other expenses. Jacking up tuition won't work: tuition would have to be multiplied by a factor exceeding 10, and the new cap on federally guaranteed loans will keep that from happening. The best hope for Michigan State is perhaps some sort of merger that will amount to its elimination under more polite cover.
Minnesota sub-prestigious law school has been soaking the parent university for years and has received ominous warnings that that state of affairs cannot continue. My forecast for Minnesota: sharp reduction of the faculty, possibly also of salaries. A key advantage is the potential to absorb the paying jetsam of South Dakota, North Dakota, and some other law schools in the general vicinity.
We condemned that stupid grant of $3.4M to Appalachian. But even it was only a third of what Appalachian claimed to need for long-term survival—and it cost the county 6% of its annual budget. There just isn't going to be public funding enough to sustain this unnecessary, underperforming über-toilet. The twenty thousand residents of that county just can't afford even the wasteful grant already made, still less more.
Some law schools will be restructured; this is already happening, with outright marginalization of JD programs as several schools have moved into questionable BAs in law. A handful can survive for a few years by slashing faculty, lowering salaries, hiking tuition, dropping discounts, and increasing enrollment. Many, however, are quite precarious, already overextended on subsidies that are unlikely to continue. Expect more closures.
Well, I hope that I'm wrong but it seems that politicians are now the sugar daddies of local law schools. It was politicians who created North Texas and bailed out Appalachian. And Michigan State-well, based on admittedly anecdotal evidence(conversations with Michigan attorneys), while Michigan may have the national name, it's MSU law school with the local political power, which will come in handy when MSU comes to the legislature for $$$. The point: for a variety of nonsensical reasons, politicians of all stripes and in all locations seem to think it's a good idea to fund local law schools.
DeleteThe graft cannot go on forever, even with local politicians behind it. Earlier this year, the county dropped 6% of its annual budget just to maintain Appalachian for a few lousy months. Just exactly how much more money can the county wring out of its 20,000 low-income residents for short-term funding of a hopeless über-toilet that sometimes makes Cooley look good?
DeleteWhen money goes to Appalachian, it goes to the law school alone, because that's all that Appalachian is. When it goes to Michigan State, it goes to the university, which then has to allocate it to the law school and all other constituents. It seems that the law school at Michigan State isn't paying 10% of its operating expenses. However scam-loving the administration may be, it will struggle to justify paying 90%+ of the expenses of a toilet law school when so many other interests will be clamoring for that money.
What does all this mean in practice? Appalachian can be expected to close down. Michigan State may survive in altered form but is likely to close.
The reality is that law school simply does not need to be that expensive. As Old Guy says, what the hell does a law school require? It’s a couple of chairs in a lecture hall and some books. Have some actual practitioners teach law instead expensive “academics”. These practitioners would teach on a contract basis similar to adjuncts in other fields. There is no reason why it costs so much to operate a law school.
ReplyDeleteLaw schools generally became predatory pigs, paying fancy salaries for little work. Campos pointed out that professors of law are often paid twice what their counterparts in arts and sciences get, for no good reason. We've written before about the widespread practice of having professors teach only one or two courses per semester and spending the rest of their time either sitting around with their thumb up their ass or scribbling asinine scholarshit. Then there are the junkets to Italy and other fluff.
DeleteThe Campos paper is a concise, stunning indictment of the whole scam. It states precisely my experience and conclusions.
ReplyDeleteFollow-up to OG's previous post; it's now (semi-) official-
ReplyDeletehttps://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/21/trump-administration-recommends-stripping-american-bar-association-of-law-school-oversight-authority-01045391
There was never a reason for a private entity allegedly representing lawyers to manage the accreditation of law schools.
DeleteJust don't go to the law school. It's a scam!!!!
ReplyDeleteIt is a very well-thought out, well-planned, devious scam. It works in part because there so, so many TV shows/movies/novels that portray lawyers as powerful, wealthy, beautiful people "pursuing justice" in dramatic courtroom battles. I have been practicing law for over thirty years and, IRL, court is very boring. It literally puts people to sleep. In addition, people rely on Wishful Thinking to convince themselves to go to law school, and are all to willing to believe fanciful tales about amazing job opportunities in "International Law" "Sports Law" and even "Space Law". Again, I have been practicing for decades, and I haven't met a Space Lawyer or an International lawyer yet.
DeleteAll of the following is bullshit:
DeleteInternational law
Sports law
Space law
Entertainment law
Environmental law
All of it is also heavily promoted by toilet and über-toilet law schools. Reading their propaganda, one would get the impression that thousands of graduates every year were rubbing elbows with diplomats over cocktails in Vienna, hobnobbing with celebrities, representing dolphins, or negotiating contracts with Martians.
Not a single law school promotes divorces, wills, foreclosures, and other work that abounds in the real world. One wonders who does this stuff, when everyone is aiming for Global Leadership™ or some other mythological area of practice.
Of course, there are international issues that came up in legal practice. These don't involve flying into Tokyo with one's Mickey Mouse über-toilet JD (and not a word of Japanese) to practice in the courts there. Most often, they pertain to such prosaic matters as the appropriate jurisdiction for a matter or ways to serve process abroad.
Environmental issues do arise, typically in a regulatory context. They do not involve suing a gigantic corporation on behalf of dolphins.
A handful of lawyers do serve, almost exclusively, celebrities or the companies that employ them. That doesn't mean that they practice "sports law" or "entertainment law", just that they do general contractual and commercial law for clients who come primarily from the field of entertainment.
Old Guy can and sometimes does handle international and environmental issues. A garden-variety Cooleyite would never go near them.
C'mon OG-those programs offer a handy-dandy "certificate" in those rarefied specious specialties. And no doubt that certificate is suitable for framing.
DeleteOffering certificates or concentrations in certain(often fictional) areas of law seems to be the hallmark of all trash law schools.
The most "international" experience one will likely get while attending a toilet is literally driving by a Chinese takeout spot on the way to attending the toilet law school or perhaps ordering Chinese takeout. The reality is that there is no real jobs in "international law" for the vast majority of law graduates in the United States. Even at schools like Yale, international opportunities are few and far between and are fiercely competitive.
DeleteI tell people who attend the vast majority of law schools that you will not be doing anything like what people believe "international law" is like. Like what old guy said, you will most likely be either doing family law, local criminal law, personal injury or some sort of insurance defense law at either a small firm or an insurance carrier. Even at the so called elite T-14 law schools, the real "international law" opportunities are fiercely competitive and the only "international law" one can reliable get is some sort of cross border regulatory practice at a big law sweatshop were an associate will most likely be forced out in 3-4 years. The work is incredible boring and dry and you will be staring at a computer day.
DeleteOld Guy certainly has handled some matters with an international element, but that is very different from practicing "international law". At least Old Guy is proficient in several languages, unlike the vast majority of people (more Cooley- than Yale-grade) who aspire to this fictitious specialty.
DeletePeople who are considering law school, notwithstanding years of baleful warnings at OTLSS, should think twice before attending any of the 141 (out of 184) law schools that Campos lists as being at high or severe risk of financial difficulties. Do not forget that several law schools in recent years have simply shut up shop, abandoning their students. Even if you were able to graduate from one of these endangered institutions, you might suffer from the stigma of a subsequent closure. "East Bumblefuck U: isn't that one those law schools that went bust a few years ago?"
ReplyDeleteOld Guy, what do you think about the new bankruptcy guidance for student loan debt? I’m getting close to filing sometime next year for my 185k of garbage T4 law school debt.
DeleteI haven't looked into it. Perhaps someone else here can discuss it.
DeleteI don't feel sorry for these law schools. They did this to themselves. They put all of these students in debt for promising lofty careers if they attended these schools. Obliviously, those promises were false at the vast majority of schools. People are slowly realizing the scam and these schools need to pay the consequences.
ReplyDeleteThe analysis seems pretty arbitrary. I don't think anyone believes that many of the the schools in the High or Severe categories will actually close. The analysis only focuses on revenues and doesn't say much about expenses. If schools get in a tight spot then they can do all sorts of things. Lay off faculty, drop courses particularly non bar exam related courses, increase class sizes where classroom space permits.
ReplyDeleteOf course if the student loan program is reduced or eliminated that is another issue. If law school enrollments drastically drop off that is another. But neither of these appear to be an immediate threat.
If financial pressures become acute for more than 10 percent of these law schools there will be intense pressure on the ABA to cut law school length to 2 years. Either that or schools will withdraw from the ABA. Most toilet grads practice in their home state anyway. 2 years would be win win for everyone.
There may be a handful of closures but I think unless there is a fundamental change almost all these schools will be open 10 years from now.
Many schools already have cut faculty, increased enrollment, and raised fees. Bullshit courses of the "Hip-Hop and the US Constitution" variety are slated for extinction outside the élite and near-élite schools.
DeleteAnother common practice nowadays is movement towards degrees other than the JD, such as LLMs (usually bullshit) and BAs (there's a new undergraduate major in law or pre-law). At Arizona, for instance, 88% of the students are now undergraduates. Arizona is effectively closing down as a law school, if by "law school" we mean a program qualifying the students for admission to the bar.
Some schools will close: Appalachian, Cooley, Ohio Northern, Michigan State, and Cincinnati seem like prime candidates. Others may take the less disgraceful but still certain exit of merger. That is easiest for those with neighbors: it may happen in New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, even Detroit, but not in the Rocky Mountains. Many will be stuck with much smaller budgets that will put a damper on those upper-crusty package tours of Kenya. Among these will be the law schools at most flagship state universities.
Old Guy, are you saying that there are more bullshit courses like Hip-Hop and the constitution at elite law sxhools at Yale than at a local toilet like Quinipiac? You would think toilets would have bullshit courses in order to differentiate themselves.
DeleteBullshit courses—Law and Popular Culture, that sort of thing—are common even at élite law schools. I wrote a few years ago about a law school in India where a bullshit course on Harry Potter was oversubscribed; the so-called professor insisted that the Harry Potter books be read at least twice over before the start of class, evidently deeming them to be more profound and subtle than, say, the appellate cases that one gets in first-year Contracts.
DeleteBut toilet law schools are going to have to drop this fluff. First, their students can ill afford them: they'll have to take bar review from the first day to have any hope of passing a bar exam, and already many toilet law schools have indeed had mandatory bar review for the entire three-year curriculum. Second, they can't afford to have deadwood like andré douglas "Dougie Fresh" pond cummings on payroll to teach worthless courses when they are straining to survive financially.
Indiana Tech was so far up its ass, during its brief existence, that it offered not only crap such as "Hip-Hop and the US Constitution" but also four certificates in "Global Leadership" and similar tripe. Only one person from the first graduating class even passed the bar exam (although I recall that a couple of others later slipped through after an appeal of their scores), so I don't suppose that short-lived Indiana Tech ever produced many global leaders.
I heard rumors that two toilet law schools in NY, Pace University School of Law and New York Law School have contemplated a merger in the past. It seems that we may be seeing this going forward.
ReplyDeleteNew York has several toilets that could be consolidated in the style of Mitchell and Hamline. Toilets in Vermont, Mississippi, or North Dakota would not be so easily consolidated.
DeleteWhich schools in New York State do you think can be consolidated? I believe in Connecticut, University of Bridgeport "transferred" their toilet law school to Quinnipiac University. The toilet is literally only 20 minutes away from Yale Law School.
DeleteHofstra, Pace, St. John's, Touro, New York Law School, Brooklyn, potentially Cardozo, for that matter even Seton Hall and Rutgers in New Jersey. All are toilets; most are über-toilets.
DeleteYale certainly would not want to swallow up Quinnipiac.
New England | Law Boston shares its library with Tufts U. Medical/Dental Schools. Their bookstores have been consolidated into one. Students from all have free access to the others libraries. The law school is about about 1/4 mile apart from the Tufts schools practically on the same street.
DeleteSo an uber toilet New England law school is sharing facilities with a medical school and a dental school that most of the students are way too dumb to get admitted to?
DeleteI was thinking yesterday about people attending toilet law schools that are very close to high ranked law schools. For example, toilet school Quinnipiac School of Law is less than 20 minutes away from Yale Law School. Even UCONN Law School is only about an hour away from Yale Law School.
ReplyDeleteIn other news, I got a HaystackID email yesterday for an urgent doc review job at $24/hr. I don't do that any more, actually I work in the Chemical industry for more pay and real benefits.
ReplyDelete